Bihar Survey Report: Who Is Winning?

The SAS Group (IITians Group), based in Hyderabad, conducted its second pre-poll survey for the Bihar Assembly Elections 2025. The survey was held between August 25 and October 2, 2025, covering 64,300 samples across all 243 assembly constituencies in two phases.

Importantly, all samples were collected directly in the field, not through phone or online methods. A mix of stratified and random sampling was used, with equal representation of men and women, rural and urban voters, and different communities, ensuring reliable results with only a 1–1.5% margin of error.

The survey shows a close contest between the NDA alliance and the MGB (INDIA) alliance. The Jan Suraaj Party (Prashant Kishore) is emerging as a strong factor, especially in urban areas, likely cutting into the NDA’s vote share.

The northern region of Bihar is expected to play a decisive role. Voter concerns include unemployment, corruption, caste identity, law and order, women’s voting, rural infrastructure, and welfare schemes. Dissatisfaction with the current NDA government’s performance, especially on unemployment and corruption, is noticeable.

In terms of vote share projection, the survey gives:

MGB+ (INDIA alliance): 40.5% – 41.5%

NDA+: 39.5% – 40.5%

JSP: 10.5% – 11.5%

Others (including AIMIM): about 10%

In seat projections, out of 243 constituencies, the survey estimates:

MGB+: 116 – 125 seats

NDA+: 104 – 115 seats

JSP: 11 – 14 seats

Others: 7 – 9 seats

The magic number for majority is 122, which means both NDA and MGB are very close, making the election highly competitive. JSP is seen mainly as a vote-cutter and kingmaker. The next survey will be released after final candidate lists are announced.