Jammu & Kashmir Elections: Exit Polls Reveal Shocking Twists!

The Jammu and Kashmir Assembly elections have garnered significant attention both nationally and internationally, marking a pivotal moment in the region's political landscape. With the elections being conducted for the first time since the abrogation of Article 370 in 2019, the stakes are high. The assembly elections are set to unfold in three phases, with results expected on October 8. The magic number for a majority in the 90-seat assembly is 46, creating a competitive atmosphere among various political factions.

Recent exit polls have produced varied predictions regarding the election outcomes. According to the Mega Exit Polls, the National Conference (NC) is projected to secure 33 seats, followed by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) with 27 seats, and Congress with 12 seats. In contrast, Dainik Bhaskar suggests a stronger performance for the NC-Congress alliance, estimating their combined seats could range from 35 to 40. Other polls, like those from People's Pulse and Republic Matrix, further illustrate this uncertainty, indicating a potential for a hung assembly where no single party or coalition achieves a clear majority.

Voter turnout has been notably high throughout the election phases, with an overall turnout of approximately 63.88%. The final phase saw an impressive turnout of around 69.69%, particularly strong in regions like Udhampur and Kathua. This increased participation reflects a renewed interest in democratic processes among the electorate, especially given that several communities, including West Pakistan Refugees and Valmikis, have recently gained voting rights for the first time in decades.

As campaigning intensified, prominent political figures from various parties made their presence felt across the region. Leaders such as Prime Minister Narendra Modi and former Chief Ministers like Mehbooba Mufti campaigned vigorously to sway public opinion. The results on October 8 will not only determine the future governance of Jammu and Kashmir but will also serve as an indicator of how effectively these parties resonate with voters in this historically complex region.

Exit Poll Results for Jammu and Kashmir Assembly Elections

1. **Mega Exit Polls:**

- National Conference: 33 seats

- BJP: 27 seats

- Congress: 12 seats

- PDP: 8 seats

- Others: 10 seats

2. **Dainik Bhaskar:**

- National Conference-Congress Alliance: 35-40 seats

- BJP: 20-25 seats

- PDP: 4-7 seats

- Others: 12-16 seats

3. **People's Pulse:**

- National Conference: 33-35 seats

- Congress: 13-15 seats

- BJP: 23-27 seats

- PDP: 7-11 seats

- Others: 4-5 seats

4. **Republic Matrix:**

- National Conference: 15 seats

- Congress: 12 seats

- BJP: 25 seats

- PDP: 28 seats

5. **The Kashmiri:**

- National Conference: 26-30 seats

- Congress: 8-14 seats

- BJP: 24-29 seats

- PDP: 6-9 seats

- Others: 10-20 seats

### Voter Turnout:

- Overall voter turnout across all phases: **63.88%**

- Phase-wise turnout:

- Phase 1 (September 18): **61.38%**

- Phase 2 (September 25): **57.31%**

- Phase 3 (October 1): **69.69%**

### Majority Requirement:

- **Magic figure for majority:** **46 seats**