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YSRCP is falling, but TDP is not rising
By: Tupaki Desk | 11 April 2023 10:35 AM GMT
The YSRCP graph in AP is certainly on the downslide. But, the bad news for the Opposition TDP is that it will not fall too much. If a recent survey report commissioned by the TDP backers is an indication, the core vote of the YSRCP is not just stable, but is also impregnable. Also, it will not fall beyond a certain level.
Another bad news for the TDP is that its core vote of 39 per cent is not rising. Also, it is unable to garner the neutral voters, especially the young voters. Thus, assuming that even if it manages to go up to 41 percent, it will not be able to dent the YSRCP core vote. This is what the survey results foresee.
The difference in the vote share between the YSRCP and the TDP in the 2019 election was 10 per cent. So, a marginal increase is not enough to make a difference. The YSRCP will still romp home, albeit with a little lesser number of seats.
The third bad news for the TDP is that all the anti-YSRCP mood will not turn into votes. More importantly, the votes of youth especially will not go to the TDP despite its disenchantment with the YSRCP. The reason being that the TDP is already tried and tested. Its rule in 2014-2019 period is a recent memory.
Thus, the survey predicts that a large part of the anti-YSRCP votes will go to the Jana Sena. The party has quite a significant level of appeal among the young voters. Thus, the Jana Sena, which got around 1 per cent in the 2019 election, may get up to 5 to 6 per cent. Thus, Jana Sena's gain is an obvious loss for the TDP. Now, this explains why the TDP is so desperate to stich up an alliance with the Jana Sena.
Another bad news for the TDP is that its core vote of 39 per cent is not rising. Also, it is unable to garner the neutral voters, especially the young voters. Thus, assuming that even if it manages to go up to 41 percent, it will not be able to dent the YSRCP core vote. This is what the survey results foresee.
The difference in the vote share between the YSRCP and the TDP in the 2019 election was 10 per cent. So, a marginal increase is not enough to make a difference. The YSRCP will still romp home, albeit with a little lesser number of seats.
The third bad news for the TDP is that all the anti-YSRCP mood will not turn into votes. More importantly, the votes of youth especially will not go to the TDP despite its disenchantment with the YSRCP. The reason being that the TDP is already tried and tested. Its rule in 2014-2019 period is a recent memory.
Thus, the survey predicts that a large part of the anti-YSRCP votes will go to the Jana Sena. The party has quite a significant level of appeal among the young voters. Thus, the Jana Sena, which got around 1 per cent in the 2019 election, may get up to 5 to 6 per cent. Thus, Jana Sena's gain is an obvious loss for the TDP. Now, this explains why the TDP is so desperate to stich up an alliance with the Jana Sena.
