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The Graduate MLC election results are out and the TDP understandably is celebrating as it has won all the three seats. Exultant TDP leaders are claiming that this is the beginning of the end of YS Jagan Mohan Reddy's YSRCP in Andhra Pradesh. But, is it truly the beginning of the end for the YSRCP? Political analysts feel the TDP celebrations are quite premature.
The Graduates Constituency MLC elections involved 108 assembly constituencies in nine districts of Andhra Pradesh. In these, the TDP polled a total of 2,89,630 first preference votes, while the YSRCP secured 2,36, 972 first preference votes. The difference is around 8 per cent. This edge is only among the graduate voters and not among the whole population, which includes beneficiaries of the YSRCP largesse.
More importantly, in all the three constituencies, the TDP could win only after counting the second and third preference votes. Most of the BJP and PDF voters have given their second, third and fourth preference votes to the TDP. In the actual assembly elections, the second preference would not be there. Which means, the TDP might not get the BJP and the Left vote. This would make a difference in the final outcome.
This only means that the TDP has to do a lot more homework and has to cover a lot of ground for it to win the 2024 elections. Then there are caste and other regional factors that would come into play at the time of the elections. The TDP success would ultimately depend on the alliances it would cobble up. So, the TDP celebrations are too early and too premature.